2023 Week 5 NCAA DFS Picks for DraftKings & Fanduel

In the fast-paced world of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), success often hinges on your ability to turn numbers into a winning strategy. When it comes to college football, a sport renowned for its unpredictability and the potential for underdog upsets, leveraging data can be the key to maximizing your probability of victory on platforms like DraftKings.

College football is a unique beast in the DFS world, offering a diverse range of teams, playing styles, and weekly matchups. Unlike the NFL, where statistical trends are more stable, college football presents a constantly shifting landscape, making it both exhilarating and challenging for DFS enthusiasts. To thrive in this environment, you need more than just a gut feeling or a hunch – you need a data-driven approach that helps you navigate the complexities of the sport.

In this article, we’ll walk you through the fundamentals of harnessing data, from player statistics to team dynamics, to build lineups that are poised for success. Whether you’re a seasoned DFS player looking to gain an edge or a newcomer eager to learn the ropes, we’ve got you covered. Get ready to discover how to turn the chaos of college football into a calculated strategy that maximizes your probability of winning on DraftKings. Let’s dive in and begin your journey to DFS excellence!

Sleepers

Quarterbacks

This week’s DFS quarterback sleepers offer a diverse range of options to consider, each with the potential to deliver exceptional value. At a price point of $7300, KJ Jefferson is an intriguing choice, coming off a strong performance and facing a favorable matchup. Seth Henigan, priced at $8000, has been a consistent force and could prove to be a reliable pick against his upcoming opponent. Hudson Card, available at just $6600, presents an enticing budget-friendly option, especially if he can exploit his team’s offensive potential.

Chandler Morris, at $8200, is another hidden gem, showing glimpses of his playmaking abilities that can shine in the right circumstances. Lastly, Spencer Rattler at $7300 might be flying under the radar after some ups and downs, but he possesses the talent to explode in DFS and could be a game-changer if he finds his rhythm. These sleepers offer a mix of affordability and upside, making them intriguing candidates to round out your DFS lineup for the week.

Running Backs

When it comes to DFS running back sleepers for this week, there’s an array of promising options to consider. First up, keep a close eye on Rocket Sanders at a mere $5600. He’s an Arkansas running back who’s returning from injury and has been practicing with the first team, indicating he could be a valuable bargain with a potentially higher workload. Trevor Etienne, priced at $5200, is coming off a stellar performance against Tennessee and is expected to see over 15 touches against Kentucky, making him an enticing value pick.

Will Shipley, at $5900, has demonstrated his dual-threat capabilities and could shine in a favorable matchup. Jonathan Brooks, valued at $6200, is another intriguing choice, offering a blend of price and production potential. Lastly, CJ Donaldson, priced at $5800, provides a reasonable cost with the potential for significant touches, offering a balanced mix of affordability and upside.

Receivers

As you craft your DFS lineup for this week, be sure to consider these sleeper wide receivers and tight ends who offer fantastic potential at their respective price points. First up, Brock Bowers, a dynamic UGA tight end, is a standout choice at just $5400. Fresh off a spectacular performance, Bowers remains an affordable gem that shouldn’t be overlooked. Cam Camper, priced at $5300, presents another intriguing option, with the potential to deliver big plays in a favorable matchup.

At a mere $4700, JaTavion Sanders is an affordable wildcard who could provide immense value if he gets involved in his team’s passing game. Holden Staes, valued at $4500, is a budget-friendly choice that offers a chance to shine, especially if he becomes a red-zone target. Finally, Squirrel White, at $5800, offers a slightly higher price point but could pay off handsomely with his big-play ability and potential for a breakout performance.

High-Probability Position Groups

When analyzing college football matchups, it’s essential to identify position groups that have a high probability of success when facing an outmatched opponent. For instance, teams with dominant offensive lines going up against weaker defensive fronts often provide their running backs with the perfect opportunity to shine. Additionally, wide receiver groups facing vulnerable secondaries can exploit mismatches and put up big numbers. Quarterbacks facing defenses with a history of struggling against the pass also present promising opportunities for DFS success.

Recognizing these favorable position group matchups can be the key to assembling a winning DFS lineup and maximizing your chances of coming out on top in Week 4.

Team Abb	Opp	H/A	Spread	O/U	PPF	PPA	Def vs Pass	Def vs Rush
USC	Colo	A	-21.5	73.50	47.50	26.00	113	124
Oreg	Stan	A	-27	61.00	44.00	17.00	126	55
Wash	Ariz	A	-17.5	69.50	43.50	26.00	64	28
Tex	Kans	H	-17	62.00	39.50	22.50	49	26
Tul	UAB	H	-21.5	57.00	39.25	17.75	90	117
SMU	UNCC	H	-22.5	56.00	39.25	16.75	0	0
Fres	NEV	H	-24.5	53.50	39.00	14.50	131	118
GATec	BGSU	H	-23	54.00	38.50	15.50	30	97
Tenn	SCar	H	-12.5	64.50	38.50	26.00	129	48
PSU	NW	A	-26	46.00	36.00	10.00	42	115
UNLV	Hawaii	H	-11	61.00	36.00	25.00	0	0
ColSt	Dix	H	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0
NorTx	Abil	H	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0
Rut	Wagn	H	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0
MIZ	Vand	A	-13.5	56.50	35.00	21.50	83	92
GaSo	CoCar	H	-7	62.50	34.75	27.75	53	109
TxSt	SMiss	A	-7	62.00	34.50	27.50	25	123
Okla	IASt	H	-20	48.50	34.25	14.25	24	49
App	ULMon	A	-13.5	54.00	33.75	20.25	78	94
UCF	Bayl	H	-11.5	56.00	33.75	22.25	51	106
LSU	Miss	A	-3	63.50	33.25	30.25	69	59
W Ky	MidTN	H	-5.5	60.00	32.75	27.25	93	79
MD	Ind	H	-14	50.00	32.00	18.00	23	103
MiaOH	Kent	A	-15	49.00	32.00	17.00	67	122
Mem	Boise	H	-3.5	60.00	31.75	28.25	124	75
Toled	NIU	H	-13	50.00	31.50	18.50	3	99
Ala	MissSt	A	-14.5	48.00	31.25	16.75	0	0
TxTch	Hou	H	-8.5	54.00	31.25	22.75	109	82
Cal	AzSt	H	-12	50.50	31.25	19.25	79	53
TCU	WVU	H	-11	51.00	31.00	20.00	45	40
TxAM	Ark	A	-6.5	55.50	31.00	24.50	77	22

Shootouts of the Week

By examining the implied scores derived from the point spread and over/under metrics, we can pinpoint games with the potential for offensive fireworks. When the over/under line is set high, it signifies an expectation of a high-scoring affair, making players from those contests particularly enticing for DFS lineups.

Additionally, games with narrow point spreads suggest closely contested battles where both teams will likely keep their foot on the gas pedal, creating opportunities for multiple players to accumulate fantasy points. Identifying these projected shootouts allows DFS enthusiasts to target players from these games and take full advantage of the potential for explosive point production this week.

Team Abb	Opp	H/A	Spread	O/U	PPF	PPA	Def vs Pass	Def vs Rush
Tenn	SCar	H	-12.5	64.50	38.50	26.00	129	48
LSU	Miss	A	-3	63.50	33.25	30.25	69	59
GaSo	CoCar	H	-7	62.50	34.75	27.75	53	109
TxSt	SMiss	A	-7	62.00	34.50	27.50	25	123
UNLV	Hawaii	H	-11	61.00	36.00	25.00	0	0
W Ky	MidTN	H	-5.5	60.00	32.75	27.25	93	79
Mem	Boise	H	-3.5	60.00	31.75	28.25	124	75
Akr	Buff	H	-2.5	57.00	29.75	27.25	116	132
BC	UVA	H	-3	56.00	29.50	26.50	90	111

Stack of the Week

Mikey Keene $8300 + Erik Brooks $6600

In the world of college football DFS, finding the perfect stack can be the golden ticket to success and we’ve got our eyes on a standout combination. This week’s CFB DFS Stack of the Week features a quarterback-wide receiver duo that promises to deliver explosive results.

With their potent connection on the field and a favorable matchup, this duo could be the cornerstone of a winning DFS lineup. Stacking not only amplifies the potential for big points but also adds an element of synergy to your roster.

Podcast Host DFS Battle

Matt Knowles

Doug Gravely

Brian McElfresh

Your Secret Weapon for College Fantasy Football Supremacy

Built to help enthusiasts in standard college fantasy football, devy fantasy football, and everyone playing CFB DFS on DraftKings & FanDuel.

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Spreadsheet Key

H/A = Home or Away

FPts = Year-to-date fantasy points

FP/G = Year-to-date fantasy points per game

PPF = Projected points for player’s team.

PPA = Projected points for player’s opponent

SP+ Off = Power rating of team’s offensive talent by Bill Connelly

SP+ Def = Player’s opponent’s power rating

Def vs Pass/Rush = Player’s opponent’s ranking