We all know just how important it is to have a stud QB at your disposal in college fantasy football, but having that one guy who is truly special could be what puts your team over the top in pursuit of that elusive championship reign.
In this article, we will take a look at the best of the best, the cream of the crop over the past decade. Here at CFBDynasty however, we are always looking to take it to the next level, so instead of just regurgitating the stats alone, we will also examine whether or not those elite performances translated into NFL success.
A couple of things to consider before continuing:
* This article is based on raw stats, regardless of the number of games in that player’s season.
* There could be a slight skew because ALL games in a player’s season were taken into account, including conference championships and bowl games, that are never a part of the actual college fantasy season.
* Scoring system is yards/10 and TDx6, no negative points for INT/sacks.
* When AVERAGE points per game are considered, the current #1 (Case Keenum in 2011) would be overtaken by Patrick Mahomes 2016 season for that top spot. Mahomes only played 12 games that season, and had a whopping 70.8 PPG average
* After looking at the QBs on this list, I will wrap this article up with a few evaluations of my own.
So let’s get down to it, shall we?
|5||Patrick Mahomes II||Texas Tech||JR||851.7|
|6||Derek Carr||Fresno St||SR||832|
|8||Dwayne Haskins||Ohio State||SO||817.9|
|11||Brandon Doughty||Western Ky||SR||805.5|
|14||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M||FR||793.6|
|15||Brandon Doughty||Western Ky||SR||789|
|17||Patrick Mahomes II||Texas Tech||SO||786.9|
|18||Robert Griffin III||Baylor||JR||781.2|
|19||Mason Rudolph||Okla St||SR||775.9|
|21||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M||SO||763.3|
|22||Jordan Lynch||N Illinois||SR||763.2|
|23||Jordan Lynch||N Illinois||JR||759.3|
For analysis purposes, we will break them down into 4 groups (top 25 ordered list w/ stats is after this section):
1) High Expectations/Draft Status – Realized those pro expectations
2) High Expectations/Draft Status – Expectations not realized in the pros
3) Low Expectations/Draft Status – Have experienced success in the pros
4) Low Expectations/Draft Status – No or low success in the pros
High Expectations/Draft Status – Realized Pro Expectations
To be considered for this designation you had to not only have a stellar college fantasy season, but you also had to have been drafted high into the NFL *and* have seen your career produce CONSISTENTLY. If you are a first or second-year pro player, you cannot have had a dud season.
High Expectations/Draft Status - Expectations NOT Realized
Low Expectations/Draft Status - Experienced Success In The Pros
Low Expectations/Draft Status - No or Low Success In The Pros
Here are some observations based on the above data:
* Don’t expect a Freshman to put forth an elite college fantasy season. Of the top 25 performances, there was only ONE (Manziel in 2012) to crack the top 25. In fact, his is the only freshman performance to crack the top SIXTY.
* The NFL does not trust top-shelf college QB fantasy performances outside of the power 5 conferences: Only Derek Carr (Fresno State) was drafted in the top rounds of the NFL draft. Otherwise, it’s the late rounds or rookie free agency for ‘group of 5’ QBs that are college fantasy studs.
* It is RARE to see a QB that produced at an ELITE fantasy level exceed expectations in the pros. Only 1 undrafted or low round QB (Case Keenum) was able to parlay any level of success in the NFL, and at that he may be the NFL version of a ‘one and done’, seeing his only career-defining season with Minnesota in 2017, sharply declining in 2018 with the Broncos.
* BONUS NOTE: Pay attention to the guys that LEAVE the FLORIDA GATORS, not who is there. It is baffling to look at the guys that were once on the Florida roster, who didn’t produce much from a fantasy perspective there, but sought out greener pastures elsewhere and produced at an elite level. Cam Newton, Will Grier, and Jacoby Brissett all donned the orange and blue of UF before they became household names in the college fantasy scene. Florida doesn’t even put a QB on the top 100 list. So keep your eyes peeled. The next guy that leaves the Gators just might be your man.
* If your GOAL is uncovering ELITE fantasy performances, only concern yourself with where the NEXT hot school is, never look back. Coaches, systems and trends play as much a part in an elite fantasy performance as does personal talent. There was a time when having a Baylor, Fresno State or Oregon QB would assure you of high fantasy points. Houston and Texas Tech both had their heyday. At one point Bowling Green and Western Kentucky produced the fantasy top studs. This past season is the first time that ALL the top seasons came from power five schools (with Oklahoma, Ohio State, Washington State, and Oklahoma State putting QBs in the top 35). Understanding history is great, but if you go into your draft with a mindset stuck thinking about Art Briles’ Baylor teams, Chip Kelly’s Oregon teams, or June Jones’ Hawaii teams, you’ll probably find yourself at the bottom of the standings at season’s end.
What will the next trend be? What school will produce the next HOT commodity? Making that prediction is not the purpose of this article. It’s up to you to do your research (hopefully utilizing CFBDynasty pre-season analysis, college fantasy football rankings, and cheat sheets) to determine who you think that next stud will be, and how he could impact your college (or college to pro) success. Good luck.